Time is ticking for Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who faces a make-or-break decision by 17:00 GMT on Saturday: will he throw his hat into the ring for the Gorton and Denton by-election? This move could set the stage for a high-stakes showdown with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour Party leadership. But here's where it gets controversial: Burnham's path is far from smooth, and the internal politics of Labour could derail his ambitions before they even begin.
To even consider running, Burnham, a directly-elected mayor, must first secure permission from Labour's ruling National Executive Committee (NEC). And this is the part most people miss: some of Sir Keir's allies on the committee are reportedly gearing up to block Burnham's bid, a move that could spark fury among Burnham-supporting Labour MPs. The BBC has learned that this potential roadblock is already causing ripples within the party.
Burnham, a former Labour minister, has remained tight-lipped about his intentions. When questioned on Thursday, he emphasized his focus on his mayoral duties and urged caution against jumping to conclusions. Meanwhile, Deputy Labour leader Lucy Powell, an NEC member, has subtly signaled her support for Burnham, calling for the selection of the 'very best candidate' who can help Labour win the by-election. She praised Burnham as 'an incredibly popular politician' but stressed that the decision to stand ultimately rests with him.
Powell also urged party unity, advocating for members to rally behind Sir Keir and avoid internal squabbles. However, London Mayor Sir Sadiq Khan took a bolder stance, declaring, 'If Andy Burnham wants to be a member of Parliament, he should be allowed to be one. The best teams thrive when all their talent is on the field.'
The timing of this by-election is no coincidence. Speculation is rife that Sir Keir could face a leadership challenge after the May elections for the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments, as well as numerous local councils in England, which are expected to be tough for Labour. Nearly 30 councils have delayed elections this year due to local government reorganization, a move criticized by opposition MPs for potentially disenfranchising millions of voters.
For Burnham to enter any leadership race, he must first become an MP—a role he has sought twice before as Labour leader. He is expected to receive backing from former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, who will reportedly urge the NEC not to block his application at an upcoming Labour north west regional conference. Despite resigning from government last year, Rayner retains strong support among backbench MPs and party members.
However, several Labour insiders believe the NEC will reject Burnham's application, citing the cost of triggering a new Manchester mayoral election—a price tag of around £4.7 million, funded by both the party and taxpayers. Another potential hurdle? The NEC might insist on an all-women shortlist for the by-election, given the current male-dominated makeup of Labour's MPs.
The decision rests with the 10 NEC officers, including Sir Keir, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, Lucy Powell, and party chair Ellie Reeves, along with representatives from the GMB and USDAW trade unions. Burnham will learn their verdict on Sunday, with the final deadline for candidate applications set for midnight that day.
Gorton and Denton has long been a Labour stronghold, with the party securing an 18,000-vote victory in the last election. Reform UK trailed with 5,000 votes, narrowly edging out the Green Party. Yet, Labour MPs are split on Burnham's potential return to the House of Commons.
Labour MP and former shadow chancellor John McDonnell took to X to express his outrage, warning that blocking Burnham would 'cause immense damage to both Keir and the party.' He also criticized the Prime Minister's reliance on 'a small group of inexperienced advisers' who are 'out of touch with grassroots supporters.' McDonnell added, 'I want to separate Keir from these self-serving control freaks before they bring down the party.'
Cat Smith, MP for Lancaster and Wyre, echoed this sentiment, stating, 'It would be disappointing if No 10 blocked strong candidates like Burnham from being considered by party members.' Conversely, Graham Stringer, MP for Blackley and Middleton South, cautioned against the move, arguing that by-elections are risky for candidates representing a sitting government and that Burnham should avoid the gamble.
Is Burnham's bid a bold step toward party renewal or a risky maneuver that could backfire? What do you think? Should the NEC clear his path, or is there a stronger case for blocking his application? Let us know your thoughts in the comments—this debate is far from over.
