In the world of professional ice hockey, the question of how bad a team can be at five-on-five and still compete for the Stanley Cup is a fascinating one. It's a delicate balance between offensive prowess and defensive solidity, and the ability to adapt and improve when it matters most can make all the difference. Let's take a closer look at some of the key insights and trends that emerge from the data and analysis.
First and foremost, it's clear that controlling five-on-five play is crucial for success in the NHL playoffs. Over 80% of playoff hockey is played with five skaters on each side, and roughly two out of every three playoff goals are scored at this stage. This means that teams need to be efficient and effective in their even-strength play to have a chance at the Stanley Cup.
However, not all teams that struggle at five-on-five in the regular season are destined to fail in the playoffs. The 2018 Washington Capitals, for example, were an outlier that bucked the trend. They fell below break-even in shots and expected goals, but their strong goaltending and overall team performance allowed them to win those crucial five-on-five minutes and go on to win the Stanley Cup.
This raises an interesting question: what makes some teams able to turn things around in the playoffs, even when they struggle at five-on-five in the regular season? One key factor is goaltending. Elite goaltenders can make up for defensive shortcomings and help their teams win those crucial five-on-five minutes. Mike Smith's stellar performance in 2012 and Igor Shesterkin's elite play in 2022 and 2024 are prime examples of this.
Another factor is the ability to adapt and improve when it matters most. The 2018 Capitals, under Barry Trotz, made across-the-board improvements on the fly, and the team only got stronger as the postseason rolled on. This kind of adaptability and resilience can be a game-changer in the playoffs.
However, not all teams that struggle at five-on-five in the regular season are doomed to fail. The 2017 Pittsburgh Penguins and 2019 St. Louis Blues are prime examples of teams that fell below 50% in the playoffs but still managed to win the Stanley Cup. In both cases, it was because their scoring chance generation wasn't as strong below the surface, but they made the most of their chances and played a stingy enough defense to power forward.
So, what does this mean for the 2026 Boston Bruins, Anaheim Ducks, and Montreal Canadiens, who are currently struggling at five-on-five? It's clear that defense is a key issue for the Bruins, and their 46% xG rate ranks 29th in the league. However, if Jeremy Swayman, David Pastrnak, and Morgan Geekie can step up and make a difference, there's a chance that Boston could be an outlier and shake up the playoff picture.
The Buffalo Sabres, on the other hand, have been improving since returning to play, and their five-on-five numbers are on the rise. At this rate, they should be able to move past break-even by playoff time. The Islanders, who currently sit on the outside looking in, have had some recent downticks at five-on-five, but rookie phenom Matthew Schaefer and Ilya Sorokin's brilliance in net could make them an outlier.
In the end, the best bet to go on a deep run and end with a championship is to have a dominant team at five-on-five. While there are exceptions and outliers, the data and analysis suggest that controlling five-on-five play is crucial for success in the NHL playoffs. As we head into the postseason, it will be fascinating to see which teams can turn things around and make a run at the Stanley Cup, even when they struggle at five-on-five in the regular season.
