The Cincinnati Reds are set to welcome back their ace, Hunter Greene, for his season debut this weekend against the Orioles. This development comes as a welcome relief for the team, which has been struggling since the All-Star break. Greene's return is particularly significant given the team's current predicament, with a 12.5-game deficit in the division and only five games out of a Wild Card spot. The question is whether his return will be enough to salvage the season.
Greene, who underwent arthroscopic surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow during Spring Training, has been on a minor league assignment to build up his innings. He took four turns on the mound, pitching 6 1/3 innings and recording a 13:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 14 1/3 frames. His fastball averaged 98.6 mph, and he didn't allow a run in either of his two Triple-A appearances. Greene's return is timely, as the team has been struggling with its starting pitching, with the bullpen being the worst in baseball during the stretch.
The Reds' starting pitchers have a 17th-place ERA and the third-highest home run rate in the last two months. Chase Burns has been fantastic, emerging as a legitimate top-of-the-rotation complement to Greene. However, Andrew Abbott and Rhett Lowder have struggled to keep the ball in the park, while Brady Singer had an awful first two months before getting back on track in June. Nick Lodolo, who missed the first month with a blister issue, has a 5.05 ERA across 10 starts.
The question is whether Greene's return will be enough to turn the team's fortunes around. Manager Terry Francona didn't say whether the Reds would go to a six-man rotation, but it's likely that they'll prefer to give the ball to Greene and Burns as often as possible. The team will also have an off day next Monday and the All-Star Break after that, so they should have everyone fairly well rested.
The Reds' rotation picture could sort itself out by the trade deadline if the team doesn't have a great showing in July. Singer, an impending free agent, is unlikely to receive a qualifying offer and could be traded for a mid-level prospect. Lodolo, who is due at least a marginal raise on his $4.725MM salary for his final arbitration year, could also be moved. Greene, on the 60-day injured list, will need to be reinstated onto the 40-man roster, and the team will need to option out a pitcher to make room for Emilio Pagán in the bullpen.
Pagán, who is returning from a 15-day injured list, will slot back in as closer after a nearly two-month absence with a left hamstring strain. Pagán had struggled before the injury, giving up 10 runs while blowing three saves in nine chances over 14 innings. Santillan recorded four saves after the Pagán injury; no one else has more than one in that time. The team's bullpen has the highest walk rate in MLB, so Pagán's propensity for home runs makes him a riskier closer than most.
In conclusion, the Reds' return to the field is a welcome development, but the team's prospects remain uncertain. Greene's return is a significant boost, but the team's starting pitching and bullpen issues remain. The team will need to make strategic decisions to turn the season around, and the trade deadline could be a crucial point in determining the team's fate.
